Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
