Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
